The Scottish National Party, while perhaps the largest, most established and certainly noisiest, is not the only group with aspirations for independence within the UK. Some in Northern Ireland would prefer independence to further integration with the South. Then there are Wales and Cornwall. while some of the English would like to be rid of all of the above. And even London and the South East have independence advocates. Looking further afield there are literally dozens of independence movements across Europe (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_separatist_movements_in_Europe for a selection). Most of these have no real hope of economic independence but rather are claiming the right to more cultural, language and ethnic recognition that they currently have. Nevertheless within them there are some serious candidates for true independence, such as Cataluña, the Basque Countr(ies), Lombardy, Bavaria, to name but a few (sorry if I have left out your favourite), and of course Scotland.
The Scottish nationalists argue that and independent Scotland can take its place as a free and independent country within the European Union. I don’t doubt that they could, and the strange voting system that gives every country an equal vote irrespective of size, will give them a certain amount of power. But the EU is already an unwieldy institution with 28 countries currently and another 8 on the way or interested in joining and a few breakaway mini-states like Scotland will add further add to the numbers. Realistically what influence will most of these countries have? While they will have a vote on some matters, that does not mean real influence especially as qualified majority voting eats away at their veto (and with so many states, it surely must expand further in the future or the EU cannot work). But real power will lie with the large economic engines of the region; Germany, France, perhaps Poland and a resurgent Italy, and the UK if not torn asunder by secession.
Despite the irritations of petty rules and regulations from Brussels that are food and drink to Ukip and other secessionists, the alternative of the EU disappearing does not bear thinking about; a return to a Europe of the 18th century with petty principalities and kingdoms defined by their flag, national dress and the spirits they drink. Sooner or later they will discover the need to combine in order to survive in the 21st century. They will either vote for it or be devoured by their bigger neighbours as they go bankrupt. The other, far worse scenario, is that we will have another war on our hands as they fight for territory, resources or, heaven help us, national pride.
So the EU must survive if only for the safety and security of our children and grandchildren. But with so many independent members it must surely change and will inevitably be pushed towards a federal structure. Authority will be ceded to the centre on key issues that today we still think of as vital national interests, like external relations, defence and monetary policy. But even then much of the power will be retained by the larger states who will inevitably also furnish most of the administrators and policy makers within the new centralised government system (as happens in the USA today).
An independent Scotland and a smaller UK will surely both be more subservient to the new Europe and a lot less likely to have real influence over key policies than they do today. True the saltire will fly over Scotland, but this seems like a hollow victory to me; one that feeds the faux nationalism of the Scottish Nationalist who wants independence from the Auld Enemy, but does not deliver any real independence in what matters.
By all means embrace more devolution on matters that can realistically, and more fruitfully, be managed locally. This will meet natural desires to have more control over everyday lives (and this does not only apply to Scotland by the way, but to all parts of the UK). But would it not be better to be part of a strong UK, one of those larger nations that are the driving force behind an ever stronger, albeit more diverse, Europe. Lets keep it. I hope those British citizens who have been fortunate enough to have been given the opportunity of a referendum in September, on independence for Scotland, vote a resounding “no”.
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